Our Chances of Success

So what are our chances of success this season? 

I think it is reasonable to say that the Mets have a 60% chance of winning the Eastern Division Title (I’ll give the Phillies a 25% chance, the Braves 10%, the Marlins 4%, and the Nats 1%). 

That gives the Mets, in my hopeful estimation, a 20% chance of winning the National League pennant this year (it would be 15%, if one gave every team that made it to the playoffs the same chance, but I think that our odds are a little higher than that because I think that we’ll be better than the average team that makes it to the playoffs, for all the good that will do us, look at the 2006 Cardinals). 

And that gives them, realistically, since anything can happen in the Series and there are a lot of fine teams in the American League, a 10% chance of winning the 2007 World Series.

Does that give us a 10% chance of having a successful season?  No, obviously.  If it did, we would not still be doing things like reading Mets blogs. 

A successful season, in my book, is a season in which: a) you like the guys on the team and therefore enjoy watching them play; and b) you have hope, because you are in plausible contention at least into September.  I remember a lot of seasons in which we have had a) but not b).  I’d call them fun seasons.  I enjoyed rooting for the Al Jackson Mets and the Steve Henderson Mets, though I’m not going to call those seasons successful.  But I am going to call 1984, 1985, 1987, 1988, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, and 2006 successful.  You bet I am. 

So what are the chances that we’ll have a)?  100%.  A great bunch of guys can’t turn into assholes overnight.  What are the chance that we’ll have b)?  I think 90% is a fair guess. 

So, folks, you heard it here.  We have a 90% chance of having a successful season this year.

And a 10% chance of winning the World Series.

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