Our Chances of Success
So what are our chances of success this season?
I think it is reasonable to say that the Mets have a 60% chance of winning the Eastern Division Title (I’ll give the Phillies a 25% chance, the Braves 10%, the Marlins 4%, and the Nats 1%).
That gives the Mets, in my hopeful estimation, a 20% chance of winning the National League pennant this year (it would be 15%, if one gave every team that made it to the playoffs the same chance, but I think that our odds are a little higher than that because I think that we’ll be better than the average team that makes it to the playoffs, for all the good that will do us, look at the 2006 Cardinals).
And that gives them, realistically, since anything can happen in the Series and there are a lot of fine teams in the American League, a 10% chance of winning the 2007 World Series.
Does that give us a 10% chance of having a successful season? No, obviously. If it did, we would not still be doing things like reading Mets blogs.
A successful season, in my book, is a season in which: a) you like the guys on the team and therefore enjoy watching them play; and b) you have hope, because you are in plausible contention at least into September. I remember a lot of seasons in which we have had a) but not b). I’d call them fun seasons. I enjoyed rooting for the Al Jackson Mets and the Steve Henderson Mets, though I’m not going to call those seasons successful. But I am going to call 1984, 1985, 1987, 1988, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, and 2006 successful. You bet I am.
So what are the chances that we’ll have a)? 100%. A great bunch of guys can’t turn into assholes overnight. What are the chance that we’ll have b)? I think 90% is a fair guess.
So, folks, you heard it here. We have a 90% chance of having a successful season this year.
And a 10% chance of winning the World Series.
February 19th, 2007 at 5:28 am
Hi Dana,
I like those odds and have the same feeling of optimism that you do. Unlike the Yankees fans, who will only consider it a successful season if the Yankees win the World Series, I agree that if the Mets can play competitive, exciting baseball like they did last year and are in it when October rolls around, it will be a successful season. This doesn’t mean I am willing to settle, but if the worst the Mets do is win the NL East Championship, all I have to do is remember what it was like in the late 70’s and the Art Howe and Dallas Green years and be grateful. LOL!
February 19th, 2007 at 2:24 pm
Sort of as a corollary to b), a successful season includes some sort of pennant race. Not that you can’t be successful without one (look at last year, look at the dominant Yankee years) but it makes the season a lot more fun. I think we have an excellent chance (dare I say 100%? 90%?) of a pennant race in our division this year. I can’t wait.
February 20th, 2007 at 3:39 am
Dana, agree…liking the team is even more important to me than winning, but, well, winning is what you put the team on the field to do, so, a likeable team with a good chance of winning, well, that’s the best!
Was not in the states for most of the 70s, so I can’t comment on those teams, other than through historical accounts. Will say that the unloveable, unwinning Mets of the dreadful 90s still somehow did not manage to dissuade me and my wife from our unwavering love for our Mets…and I look forward to a long and glorious period of not only lovely teams, but winning, competitive teams, as well.
February 20th, 2007 at 9:49 pm
GAAAAH! Not Steve Henderson. My autographed Tom Seaver ball is weeping blood.