Yes I do think that there is such a thing as momentum in baseball. Yes I do understand that if you flip a coin 162 times and record your results, you will find winning streaks and losing streaks that look just like the performance of a baseball team in the course of a season. No, I do not think that proves that there is no such thing as momentum in baseball.
I’ve seen it in classes I’ve taught and in groups I’ve been a part of. People respond to the other people around them, engaged in the same activity. I’m not sure how it works and I suspect it works in different ways at different times. I don’t think it follows rules, which is why people are still unsure that it exists.
One of the reasons people doubt that there is such a thing as momentum is that it is very fragile. The Mets have momentum at the moment. Having beaten the Yankees in two out of three games and now having beaten the Phillies 8-0, they are more likely to win their next game than if they had lost two out of three to the Yanks and lost 8-0 to the Phils. But more likely just means more likely. If a Phillies pitcher pitches a great game and a Mets pitcher blows it tomorrow, the momentum can be lost or at least diminished, but if they keep winning they will still have an advantage.
One thing that helps create momentum is convincing teams like the Yankees and Phillies to respect you. Another thing is earning the respect of your fans. Look, we’ve had our ups and downs this season. But we are at .500, only four games out, after 50 games. And Jose Reyes and Jason Bay are just beginning to hit. And more fun than anything else is the cornucopia of surprises we’ve already had this season. Pelfrey, Barajas, Davis, Takahashi, Valdes, Dickey, Pagan, Mejia, Carter, Blanco. Who are these people? What did we know about them? How much did we think of them or rely on them? Last season the only player on the team who played better than expected was Luis Castillo, for all the good it did us. This is a lot of what momentum often involves: obscure people asking to be noticed, disappointing people eager not to disappoint, new people happy to be new and wanting to get old.
What serious, discerning, loving, needing Mets fan is not enjoying this season at this point? Who among you is certain that something cannot happen this year? I’m still not giving it 50% odds, but I’m getting close. I love the way they’re playing. I love the way the chips are falling. I love the eagerness I feel at 7.
This really has been an interesting season so far. It’s funny – the Mets are currently sitting at a very pedestrian .500. But it doesn’t feel like that. And I think I know why it doesn’t feel like that. It’s because they are playing so damn well at home. At home, the Mets are playing like a playoff caliber team – a team unplagued by any of the drama and ineptitude that ruined them in 2007, 2008, and 2009. But on the road, the 2010 Mets look an awful lot like their predecessors of the last three years. The difference between home and away really is staggering. But if they are going to be lopsided, it’s definitely better, I think, that home is where they play well. They’ll get better on the road.
I was hoping for the win tonight, but I never thought about another shutout, the third in a row. Not since 1969 for the Mets, and not since 2004 (evidently) by one team against another in the same series in all of Major League Baseball (as Gary Cohen first mentioned in tonight’s broadcast). Momentum? Yeah, I’ll take it.
Cannot say that I am enjoying the Mets performance on this Memorial Day eve game. Whatever momentum they have seems to vanish as soon as they get on a bus or a plane for a road game. I do enjoy this season more than last season, however. (That said, I also may have enjoyed a few bouts of intestinal flu more than much of the 2009 season.)
I think that momentum has a place in baseball (in part because they play every day, so you see players, especially defensive position players, get in a groove, or offensively make intelligent hit, sac, and baserunning decisions). But I do think the nature of the game renders momentum less of a factor than it may be in other sports, esp basketball and hockey (possibly football as well) because of the difference when it comes to physicality as well as the fact that baseball’s not truly a contact sport. I tend to subscribe (partially) to the cliche that momentum is only as good as the next game’s starting pitcher)